En un ballotage, Macri sacaría mínima ventaja sobre Cristina
Varios escenarios vislumbran una final de virtual empate. El actual mandatario recoge mayores posibilidades entre los indefinidos.
El verano calienta la política y las encuestas salen del horno. Varias de ellas, las públicas y las secretas, coinciden en una extrema paridad para una posible segunda vuelta, si los candidatos terminan siendo Macri y Cristina.
Sin embargo, el actual presidente guardaría una mínima ventaja entre los indefinidos, dado que un alto porcentaje votó a Cambiemos y hoy están “arrepentidos” y otros a Massa, quien todavía no se definió si irá de candidato y desde qué espacio.
Los indecisos suelen definirse en el ballotage. “El helado es de frutilla o chocolate” suelen destacar los observadores electorales “expertos”.
Es altamente probable que Macri pueda conseguir una nueva chance entre los que ante todo “odian a Cristina”.
Algunos de estos vectores se analizan en los laboratorios electorales. Ricardo Rouvier ubica la intención de voto en parámetros parejos. CFK 32.4, Macri 29.2.
Ante la pregunta: ¿Si tuviera que elegir en un ballotage entre Macri y Cristina a cuál votaría? El resultado es casi un espejo. CFK 38.9 , Macri 37.9 . Lo que pasa es que sigue existiendo cerca de un 20 % que esconde sus verdaderas intenciones.
Otro dato interesante es que el votante duro de Macri responde a una edad promedio de más de 50 años, mientras que el voto duro de Cristina es más joven.
Falta una eternidad. Y estos papeles se pueden quemar si el Gobierno sigue errando en materia económica o no alcanza a contener los efectos sociales de la devaluación y la deuda con el FMI.
Aparte, el escenario de paridad puede romperse con una tercera vía. Sin lanzarse, Lavagna despierta expectativas en los desencantados de la Grieta. El economista por ahora descansa en bermudas, medias y chancletas.
Last updated: January 13, 2022
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